How is the industry in the spotlight now? The photovoltaic export in-depth industry report is here!

Brief overview of photovoltaic industry operations in the first half of 2023

In the first half of 2023, in the context of the United States, Europe and India strengthening local photovoltaic manufacturing and weakening my country’s leading position in the global photovoltaic market, China’s photovoltaic industry production capacity has been oversupplied for a period, and prices have dropped significantly in all links of the industrial chain. The overall development trend The output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells and photovoltaic modules all achieved a year-on-year increase of more than 60%.

On the one hand, domestic newly installed capacity continues to grow rapidly. According to the national power industry statistics released by the National Energy Administration from January to June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 78.42GW, a year-on-year increase of 154%, which is close to the new installed capacity in 2022, accounting for 56% of the total new installed power capacity was added.

On the other hand, with the transfer of enterprise production capacity and the increase in the proportion of overseas deployment, the export volume of photovoltaic products in the first half of 2023 exceeded US$29 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 13%, setting another record high.

China’s photovoltaic module export growth slows down

Europe remains the largest export market

In the first half of 2023, my country’s photovoltaic module export volume was US$23.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%; the export volume was 108.1GW, a year-on-year increase of 37.5%. The top three markets are the Netherlands, Brazil, and Spain, which together account for 43% of the export market share.

Among them, exports to the Netherlands were US$6.535 billion, accounting for 28% of the market share, a year-on-year decrease of 50.7%, ranking first;
Exports to Brazil were US$2.01 billion, accounting for 8.62% of the market share, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%, ranking second;
Exports to Spain were US$1.42 billion, accounting for 6.1% of the market, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%, ranking third.

Europe is still my country’s largest photovoltaic module export market. In the first half of 2023, exports to the EU were US$13.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of only 0.27%, and there is a serious backlog of spot inventory.

According to statistics, the European market imported photovoltaic modules from China from January to June this year, accumulating 62.4 GW. Due to the optimistic atmosphere in the European market last year and the recent decline in European electricity prices, distributors have excess inventory.

The installed capacity of the European market in the first half of this year was 33GW. The market generally believes that the installed capacity of photovoltaics in Europe this year will be about 60-70 GW. If stocking and inventory are included, according to statistics from InfoLink Consulting, it is conservatively believed that the demand for photovoltaic modules is expected to reach 92 GW. The optimistic situation The next estimate is up to 114 GW.

China photovoltaic export forecast in the second half of the year

Due to a large backlog of spot inventory of photovoltaic modules in Europe and blocked exports to India, the growth rate of my country’s photovoltaic module exports this year will slow down significantly compared with 2022.

In the first half of this year, my country’s photovoltaic module exports only increased by 9.5% year-on-year. However, considering the increasing demand for photovoltaic installed capacity in Southeast Asia, Europe, America, Latin America and other regions, the accelerated overseas layout of enterprises, the shortage of N-type cells, and the International Energy Agency’s global photovoltaic installed capacity Due to factors such as the substantial increase in volume expectations, the forecast for the full-year installed capacity in 2023 has also been raised from 280GW-330GW to 305GW-350GW. The export volume in 2023 is expected to be close to 60 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of about 20%.